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Filling in the Triple 7 Blanks
When a large airliner disappears and no-one can explain why, the
challenge is for those well versed in aviation accidents to come up with
a logical and rational explanation for such a disaster, particularly one
that seems so unlikely in our technological age. In the other corner are
those with a vested interest in not being subject to potentially
disastrous litigation. The great unspoken truth is that many
stakeholders will be much better off if the truth of the accident is
never uncovered. What normally happens is that a company (normally
Boeing, Airbus or one of the lesser lights in airline manufacture or
even the affected airline itself) will ultimately offer to settle on the
court steps with the litigants - and for a lesser amount and no proven
liability, thus retain ownership of either/all of the indepth facts, the
fiction, the speculations or the unknowns.
But when an airliner isn't found, the victims' relatives are left in a
real world of hurt, where there is no closure. Because of Global
terrorism and a few suspected instances of pilot suicide, the
suspicions, accusations, anger and conspiracy theories abound. However
the reality is more often than not related to pilot training,
inexperience or engineering. Rarely is weather or environmentals a
factor. In the case of Malaysian Airlines Flight MAS370, that 777
compounded the perplexity by remaining airborne for over 6 hours after a
mysterious enroute 180 degree turn and no further human communication.
In fact just about all contact stopped suddenly. The mystery was based
upon a continued periodic "check-in" (or handshake) with an Inmarsat
satellite parked high above the Indian Ocean. The first crystal ball
that an investigator consults sits atop a rule of thumb called Occam's
Razor. This "tenet of truth" basically says that the simplest
explanation is usually the most elegant. Basing it upon known facts or
"history" strengthens that credo to a precept. This proven procedural
process has been mostly overwhelmed by rampant speculation in the case
of the missing MH370.
Inmarsat technicians used some rather obscure and esoteric science to
plot a rough track on MH370 and led to one of
the most extensive oceanic searches in the history of airline aviation
ensued. Maritime patrol aircraft from 5
nations conducted continuous searches of the 180km wide arc that
stretched from the point of last "handshake"
to a computed fuel exhaustion splash-point somewhere NW of Perth Western
Australia. Ships and robot underwater
vehicles were also frustrated, being unable to locate debris or localize
a few received pinger signals - assumed to be from the 777's black
boxes.
Military radar contacts with the presumed 777 had it turning back then
tracking across Malaysia to the Malacca Straits, meandering for a while
and then turning south to track into the vast empty expanse of the
Southern Indian Ocean. The challenge for investigators was
to figure out just what this apparently intentional turning and assumed
evasive tracking implied or how else this could be interpreted. The
Malaysian Prime Minister and Transport Minister declared to the World
that it was evidently a case of human interference. But is that a
reasonable conclusion or could there be a more rational explanation for
the events of that day? On first inspection, the inference of that
777 having been hijacked by the pilot or a third party seems rather
valid and conclusive doesn't it? But could there be another version of
events, one that could be related to an earlier destruction of a Boeing
777, a narrative that could explain all the events from loss of comms
onward?
Let's examine one such theory and wonder whether it's a practical
explanation - and if so, why it's not been surfaced thus far.
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